{"id":5457,"date":"2026-07-21T17:35:35","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T08:35:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lunit.io\/en\/?post_type=publication&#038;p=5457"},"modified":"2026-07-21T17:37:53","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T08:37:53","slug":"development-and-validation-of-dynamic-5-year-breast-cancer-risk-model-using-repeated-mammograms","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.lunit.io\/en\/publication\/development-and-validation-of-dynamic-5-year-breast-cancer-risk-model-using-repeated-mammograms\/","title":{"rendered":"Development and validation of dynamic 5-year breast cancer risk model using repeated mammograms"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Abstract<\/h2>\n<div id=\"sec-1\" class=\"subsection\">\n<p id=\"p-2\"><strong>Purpose<\/strong> Current image-based long-term risk prediction models do not fully use previous screening mammogram images. Dynamic prediction models have not been investigated for use in routine care.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Methods<\/strong> We analyzed a prospective WashU clinic-based cohort of 10,099 cancer-free women at entry (between November 3, 2008 and February 2012). Follow-up through 2020 identified 478 pathology-confirmed breast cancers (BCs). The cohort included 27% Black women. An external validation cohort (Emory) included 18,360 women screened from 2013, followed through 2020. This included 42% Black women and 332 pathology-confirmed BC excluding those diagnosed within 6 months of screening. We trained a dynamic model using repeated screening mammograms at WashU to predict 5-year risk. This opportunistic screening service presented a range of mammogram images for each woman. We applied the model to the external validation data to evaluate discrimination performance (AUC) and calibrated to US SEER.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Results<\/strong> Using 3 years of previous mammogram images available at the current screening visit, we obtained a 5-year AUC of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.78 to 0.83) in the external validation. This represents a significant improvement over the current visit mammogram AUC 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.77; P &lt; .01) in the same women. When calibrated, a risk ratio of 21.1 was observed comparing high (&gt;4%) to very low (&lt;0.3%) 5-year risk. The dynamic model classified 16% of the cohort as high risk among whom 61% of all BCs were diagnosed. The dynamic model performed comparably in Black and White women.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong> Adding previous screening mammogram images improves 5-year BC risk prediction beyond static models. It can identify women at high risk who might benefit from supplemental screening or risk-reduction strategies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"sec-4\" class=\"subsection\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ascopubs.org\/doi\/10.1200\/CCI-24-00200\"><b>View Abstract<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","publication-oncology":[133,85,94],"publication-region":[91],"publication-type":[],"radiology":[97,96],"class_list":["post-5457","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry","publication-oncology-lunit-scope-io","publication-oncology-pan-cancer","publication-oncology-peer-reviewed-clinical-papers","publication-region-north-america","radiology-breast","radiology-lunit-insight"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Development and validation of dynamic 5-year breast cancer risk model using repeated mammograms - Lunit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lunit.io\/en\/publication\/development-and-validation-of-dynamic-5-year-breast-cancer-risk-model-using-repeated-mammograms\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Development and validation of dynamic 5-year breast cancer risk model using repeated mammograms - Lunit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Abstract Purpose Current image-based long-term risk prediction models do not fully use previous screening mammogram images. Dynamic prediction models have not been investigated for use in routine care. Methods We analyzed a prospective WashU clinic-based cohort of 10,099 cancer-free women at entry (between November 3, 2008 and February 2012). Follow-up through 2020 identified 478 pathology-confirmed [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lunit.io\/en\/publication\/development-and-validation-of-dynamic-5-year-breast-cancer-risk-model-using-repeated-mammograms\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lunit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-07-21T08:37:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@lunit_ai\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/development-and-validation-of-dynamic-5-year-breast-cancer-risk-model-using-repeated-mammograms\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/development-and-validation-of-dynamic-5-year-breast-cancer-risk-model-using-repeated-mammograms\\\/\",\"name\":\"Development and validation of dynamic 5-year breast cancer risk model using repeated mammograms - Lunit\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-21T08:35:35+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-07-21T08:37:53+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/development-and-validation-of-dynamic-5-year-breast-cancer-risk-model-using-repeated-mammograms\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/development-and-validation-of-dynamic-5-year-breast-cancer-risk-model-using-repeated-mammograms\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/development-and-validation-of-dynamic-5-year-breast-cancer-risk-model-using-repeated-mammograms\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Development and validation of dynamic 5-year breast cancer risk model using repeated mammograms\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"Lunit\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Lunit\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/10\\\/Logo-black.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/10\\\/Logo-black.svg\",\"width\":189,\"height\":52,\"caption\":\"Lunit\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lunit.io\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/lunit_ai\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/lunit-inc\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/lunitoncology\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Development and validation of dynamic 5-year breast cancer risk model using repeated mammograms - Lunit","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.lunit.io\/en\/publication\/development-and-validation-of-dynamic-5-year-breast-cancer-risk-model-using-repeated-mammograms\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Development and validation of dynamic 5-year breast cancer risk model using repeated mammograms - Lunit","og_description":"Abstract Purpose Current image-based long-term risk prediction models do not fully use previous screening mammogram images. 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